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How Ktrl’s UA Recommendations Work

Written by Kevin Jabbour

Review campaign-level recommendations to optimize toward your ROAS targets. Each UA campaign card and chart provides directional guidance based on predicted LTV, current performance, and configured ROAS goals - Refreshed daily.

Each campaign or campaign-geo card summarizes:

  • Recommendation: The Optimization DSI ROAS % required to achieve your Target DSI ROAS %

  • Current vs Target: Compares current (past lookback average) vs target ROAS at both the target and optimization DSI levels to show how far performance is from goal

  • Average Daily Spend: Past lookback total spend ÷ number of lookback days. Indicates potential impact scale

  • Average CPI: Past lookback spend ÷ installs. Helps install volume trends

  • Target Information: Displays each segment’s applied target (default or override), converted to Paid Gross ROAS for direct network comparability

Clicking on each campaign or campaign-geo card opens up associated charts with the segment filter persisted. Available charts include:

How UA Recommendations Work

  • Ingests actual MMP data, and takes ROAS target payback % and DSI as input for all segments

  • Forecasts LTV by cohort for each segment based on actual data

  • Derives required CPI from predicted LTV by DSI based on the target ROAS by target DSI

  • Compares historical averages (within configurable lookback date range) against forecasted outcomes (target) to identify optimization direction, i.e. whether to scale, hold, or cut spend on each segment

Use this dashboard to review and act on campaign- or campaign-geo level UA decisions.

  • Filter by Act Now, Monitor, and Other to prioritize actions

  • Focus on Act Now – Scale and Act Now – Cut for highest-impact opportunities

  • When ROAS is below target:

    • Drill into KPI by install cohort or DSI charts, and ROAS tables to explore recent ROAS trends of that segment

    • Investigate whether the ROAS trends are driven by CPI changes, retention shifts, ARPDAU trends, or install mix changes

    • Compare cohort maturity trends by install date or DSI to understand evolving market conditions

  • Expect some recommendation changes day to day as new actuals update cohort forecasts (e.g. new installs, changing geo mix, IAP/IAA ratio)

Available filters and controls

  • Recommendation Confidence:

    • Act Now - Confidence ≥ 66%

    • Monitor - Confidence ≥ 33%

    • Other - Lower confidence or non-traditional networks

  • Action Type:

    • Scale - Current avg ROAS ≥ 105%

    • Hold - Between 95% - 105%

    • Cut - < 95%

  • Views:

    • Paid vs Blended (include / exclude organic uplift)

    • Net vs Gross (with / without platform fees / taxes)

    • Campaign vs Campaign-Geo

      • Campaign aggregates all geos under the same campaign name

      • Campaign-Geo breaks out individual countries for granular analysis

  • Filters:

    • Segment filters: Views can be narrowed by Geo, Platform, Network, either individually or in any combination

    • DSI selector: Controls which Dx is shown when DSI is not the pivot

    • Install groupings: Cohorts may be grouped by daily, weekly, or monthly installs

    • Date range selector: Include cohort data of the last 7, 14, 28, 60 days, or 3 months

    • DSI window selector: Controls the x-axis limit of the chart (to D1, D7, D30, D60, D90)

Recommendation History Chart

  • What is it:

    • View historical recommendations alongside predicted optimisation DSI ROAS

    • Track predicted target DSI ROAS vs target over time

  • Whys it matters:

    • Audit recommendations and track the impact if actioned

    • Improve decision confidence

    • Helps understand why to scale or pull back spend

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